Comparison of different control strategies for classical swine fever using emergency vaccination and rapid PCR testing by using a Monte-Carlo simulation model

Abstract. Whenever an outbreak of classical swine fever has occurred in the European Union (EU), the basic control measures have usually been supplemented by preventive culling. This strategy has led to a great number of culled pigs and is discussed by general public and politics from both ethical and economic points of view. Emergency vaccination has been deemed to be an alternative control measure for some time now. PCR testing also provides a possible future strategy, since this method would allow a rapid and reliable testing of pigs in the vicinity of an outbreak farm. In this study, a spatial and temporal Monte-Carlo simulation model was used to compare alternative control strategies based upon these two measures (»Emergency Vaccination«, »Test To Slaughter«, »Test To Control« and »Vaccination in conjunction with Rapid Testing«) with the current control strategy. Two regions for investigation with different farm densities were used in the model. In a region with a low farm density, the basic EU control measures seemed to be sufficient to control an epidemic. In a region with a high farm density, additional measures would be necessary. »Emergency Vaccination« in a 3 km application zone and »Traditional Control« reached the same level of infected farms. Both »Test To Slaughter« and »Test To Control« combined with preventive culling led to a lower number of infected farms compared to the sole preventive culling strategy. The alternative control measures can reduce the number of culled farms significantly compared to »Traditional Control«.