Relative importance of risk factors concerning the introduction and spread of classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease in Germany

Abstract. This paper describes the results of an expert survey in Germany to obtain the relative importance of risk factors for the introduction and spread of classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). 41 experts from five different fields were interviewed face-to-face, and 151 questionnaires were sent to experts working in the veterinary departments of five selected German federal states. In the questionnaire, experts were asked to estimate and rank situations presenting various degrees of danger. These situations were created by the respective risk factors being either "present" or "not present". The relative importance of each single risk factor was evaluated on the basis of Conjoint Analysis. The results of Conjoint Analysis were subjected to Cluster Analysis to determine whether the similarities in the experts' evaluation of risk situations might have been influenced by their working in the same field or in the same region. The evaluation of the risk factors indicates that for the introduction of CSF and FMD the import of livestock was seen as a great risk with relative importance at 26.1 % / 27.0 % (interview / questionnaire) for CSF and 25.3 % / 27.7 % for FMD, respectively. For CSF, wild boars present an additional risk at 26.8 % / 20.8 %. The danger of spreading both animal diseases rests in indirect contacts in connection with high animal density (32.8 % / 26.9 % for CSF and 39.5 % / 40.9 % for FMD). Animal trade at 27.2 % / 29.3 % was also seen as a danger for the spread of FMD. Cluster Analysis did not show any influence by mutual external conditions. Results were validated by comparing to findings in the literature.